Saber-what? An Analysis Of Sabermetric Statistics In Baseball
Jack McKay
Period 1
January 2005
Abstract
For years, baseball theorists have pondered the most basic question of baseball statistics: which statistic most accurately predicts which team will win a baseball game. With this information, baseball teams can rely on technological, statistical-based scouting organizations. The book, Moneyball addresses the advent of sabermetric statistics in the 1980s and 1990s and shows how radical baseball thinkers instituted a new era of baseball
scouting and player analyzation. This project analyzes which baseball statistic is
the single most important. It has been found that new formulas, such as OBP, OPS, and Runs Created correlate better with the number of runs a team scores than traditional statistics such as batting average.

Sample Output Of Code In Different Situations (See Website Outputs)
Sabermetric Theory
Goes Here
“Moneyball” Example
Bar Chart With Findings From My Program

For some time, a baseball debate has been brewing. Newcomers and sabermetricians (the “Statistics Community”) feel that baseball can be analyzed as a scientific entity. The Sabermetric Manifesto by Bill James serves as the Constitution for these numbers-oriented people. Also, Moneyball by Michael Lewis serves as the successful model of practical application of their theories. Traditional scouts (the “Scouting Community”) contend that baseball statistics should not overanalyzed and stress the importance of intangibles and the need for scouts. The debate can also be interpreted in terms of statistics. Baseball lifers feel that stats such as batting average are the most important. Meanwhile, the Statistics Community feels that complex, formulaic stats can better predict a player’s contributions to a team. The discussion continues in the offices of baseball teams around the country: are computer algorithms better than human senses?
From a statistical sense, baseball is an ideal sport. Plate appearances are discrete events with few, distinct results. In fact, results can be limited to a few distinct outcomes: hit, walk, or out. Outcomes can also be expressed more specifically: single, double, triple, home run, walk, strike-out, fly-out… etc. Most importantly, the outcomes of past plate appearances can accurately predict the outcomes of future plate appearances. Baseball statisticians continue to desire more information in their field in order to become better at analyzing the past and predicting the future.

void Baseball::PlayGame()
{
     if (MenuChoice == 1)
    {
        Inning = 1;
        int GameCount = 0;
for (GameCount; GameCount<NumberOfGames + 1; GameCount++)
{
     ClearAllVariables();
     for (Inning = 1;Inning<MaxInnings+1; Inning++) 
    {
       HomeTeamInning();
      AwayTeamInning();
    }
   HomeOPS = (( (HomeHits+HomeWalks) / (float)HomeTotalHitters) +
   (HomeTotalBases)/ (float)(HomeTotalHitters - HomeWalks));
   AwayOPS = (( (AwayHits+AwayWalks) / (float)AwayTotalHitters) +
   (AwayTotalBases)/ (float)(AwayTotalHitters - AwayWalks));
   HomeAVG = (HomeHits) / (float) (HomeTotalHitters - HomeWalks);
   HomeSLUG = (HomeTotalBases)/ (float)(HomeTotalHitters - HomeWalks);
   AwaySLUG = (AwayTotalBases)/ (float)(AwayTotalHitters - AwayWalks);
   HomeOBP = ((HomeHits+HomeWalks) / (float)HomeTotalHitters);
   AwayOBP = ((AwayHits+AwayWalks) / (float)AwayTotalHitters);
   AwayAVG = (AwayHits) / (float) (AwayTotalHitters - AwayWalks);
   if ( (HomeOPS > AwayOPS) && (HomeTeamRuns < AwayTeamRuns))
      ErrorOPS++;
   if ( (AwayOPS > HomeOPS) && (AwayTeamRuns < HomeTeamRuns))
      ErrorOPS++;
   if ( (HomeAVG > AwayAVG) && (HomeTeamRuns < AwayTeamRuns))
       ErrorAVG++;
   if ( (HomeAVG > AwayAVG) && (HomeTeamRuns < AwayTeamRuns))
       ErrorAVG++;
   if ( (HomeOBP > AwayOBP) && (HomeTeamRuns < AwayTeamRuns))
       ErrorOBP++;
    if ( (AwayOBP > HomeOBP) && (AwayTeamRuns < HomeTeamRuns))
       ErrorOBP++;
    if ( (HomeSLUG > AwaySLUG) && (HomeTeamRuns < AwayTeamRuns))
       ErrorSLUG++;
    if ( (HomeSLUG > AwaySLUG) && (HomeTeamRuns < AwayTeamRuns))
      ErrorSLUG++;
 }
cout<<"The AVG Statistic predicted the winner at a rate of "<<(NumberOfGames -
    ErrorAVG)/(float)(NumberOfGames/100)<<" percent."<<endl;
cout<<"The OPS Statistic predicted the winner at a rate of "<<(NumberOfGames -
    ErrorOPS)/(float)(NumberOfGames/100)<<" percent."<<endl;
 cout<<"The OBP Statistic predicted the winner at a rate of "<<(NumberOfGames -
   ErrorOBP)/(float)(NumberOfGames/100)<<" percent."<<endl;
 cout<<"The SLUG Statistic predicted the winner at a rate of "<<(NumberOfGames -
   ErrorSLUG)/(float)(NumberOfGames/100)<<" percent."<<endl;
}


if (MenuChoice == 2)
{
   for ( Inning =1;Inning<MaxInnings+1; Inning++)
{
    cout<<endl;
    cout<<"Home Inning."<<endl;      cout<<endl;
     HomeTeamInning();      cout<<endl;
    cout<<"Away Inning."<<endl;  cout<<endl;
    AwayTeamInning(); cout<<endl;
    cout<<"After Inning "<<Inning<<": HOME
"<<HomeTeamRuns<<", AWAY "<<AwayTeamRuns<<endl;
cout<<endl;
}
}//end MenuChoice 2
}