Ravi Udeshi
Period 2
Project Proposal

I.    Title:

     Multiagent Modeling of Civil Violence and Disobedience

II.    Problem Statement:
 
     An Investigation into the use of multi-agent modeling to simulate civil
     violence and disobedience.

III.    Purpose:

     The purpose of this project is to simulate civil violence and disobedience
     from the application of agent-based modeling techniques.  The project will
     allow for an in-depth understanding of computer-based simulations in terms
     of human behavior, especially when groups become antagonized toward central
     or disparate sources of authority.  By conducting this project, we will be
     able to better predict and plan for human rebellion, especially in a varied
     amount of environments and situations, including prison breaks and war-time
     conflicts.


IV.    Scope of Study:

     For this project, a comprehensive knowledge of formulas that represent civil
     disorder and violence will be required.  These will primarily come from the
     paper "Modeling Civil Violence: An agent-based computational approach" by
     Joshua M. Epstein.  I will adapt and utilize these formulas as the project
     evolves, and hope to simulate various scenarios in which they would apply.
     Once these formulas are programmed into an agent-based modeling software
     program, I envision running various scenarios to demonstrate the application
     of such formulas to describe the ways in which situations involving civil
     disobedience would play out and even possibly formulate solutions to such
     problems.  I would initially begin by constructing a basic scenario involving
     limited outside variables (such as buildings, environment variables, additional
     personnel, etc) and then use this as a control to then build more complex
     situations such as mob riots and prison breaks.


V.    Background and review of current literature/research in this area.

     Civil disobedience is an ongoing problem that has been researched thorougly
     in the past.  However, past observations have been typiaclly retrospective
     and purely hypothetical extrapolations; this project will allow me to simulate
     various situations and then base my findings on this.  I have previously
     read the aforementioned document by Joshua M. Epstein and have experimented
     with the viability of NetLogo and MASON software for engaging in this project.
     Someone not experienced with civil disodience would do well by reading
     Epstein's paper as well as investigating the histoy of civil disobedience
     and violence in various situations.


VI.   Procedure and Methodology.

     In order to complete this project, numerous objectives will have to be
     achieved.  To begin with, a significant understanding of NetLogo, and
     eventually MASON, will be required, as they will be the modeling software
     used to simulate the situations as they arise.  Graphically, the agent-based
     modeling software will be used to represent the data and formulas as
     necessary.  Needed data includes formulas and variables to represent the
     agents involved in the civil disobedience and violence as well as further
     extrapolated data from which to base the models and situations that will
     be simulated.  At the conclusion of the project, the results and testing
     data will be represented in statistical analyses of the project for further
     research in the future.  Error analysis will be presented via possible errors
     in the collection and analyzing of data.  Research into the modeling software
     will be the primary focus initially, and then design and programming the
     variables will take significant time.  Testing and analyzing the results will
     represent the conclusion of the project and allow for further research.

                             
VII.    Expected Results & Value to Others

     The intended results of this project include data that reflects the viability
     of modeling software to represent scenarios involving civil disobedience and
     violence.  I will investigate the manner with which these scenarios play out
     and look into possible ways to restrain and prevent the outbreak of individuals
     engaging in such behavior.  The final results and analyses will be presented
     through description of the project as well as graphs, charts, and graphic
     models that represent the various scenarios enacted and how they play out.
     This project will allow future researchers to better be able to evaluate
     situations involving mob riots and controlled human violence and serve as an
     important basis for future studies into the topic.  The timeframe of this    
     project involves an initial research into the topic and the viability of agent-
     -based modeling software, with the majority of the time spent programming
     formulas and analyzing models of various situations.